HAWKE’S BAY REGIONAL COUNCIL
Regional
Transport Committee
Friday 06 September 2019
Subject: Climate Change
Mitigation through Public Transport
Reason for Report
1. To present the annual public transport results.
2. To discuss a number of ideas for the mitigation of climate change
through public transport.
Performance of the bus
service 2018-19
3. This section of the report outlines the performance of the bus and
Total Mobility systems for the 2018-19 year, and compares these with previous
years.
4. Diagram 1 shows the monthly passenger trips and the monthly average
for 2012-13 to 2018-19.
5. Bus patronage has decreased by 3% in 2018-19, continuing a trend
since 2014. Patronage has decreased most on several of the suburban
routes, while the decline is less significant on services between Napier and
Hastings.
Diagram 1:
Bus Service Costs
6. Diagram 2 shows the annual net cost (after fares and GST) of
operating the goBay bus service from 2012-13 to 2018-19.
7. The cost of the bus service has increased significantly this year
due to
7.1 substantial rises in the NZTA bus
index, by which all bus contracts must be adjusted for inflation
7.2 lower fare revenue due to lower
patronage.
7.3 the cost of paid breaks added to
driver hours, as required by the Employment Relations Amendment Act, and
of floating buses added at peak times to try to keep Route 12 services running
to time.
Diagram 2:
(51% of this
cost is met by the New Zealand Transport Agency)
Total Mobility Trips
8. Diagram 3 shows the number of Total Mobility trips made from
2012 -2013 to 2018 -2019.
Diagram 3:
Total Mobility Service
Costs
9. Diagram 4 shows the cost of the Total Mobility Scheme (excl GST) for
2012-13 to 2018-2019
Diagram 4:
(60% of this cost is met by the New Zealand Transport Agency)
Background to Discussion
of the Role of Public Transport in Climate Change Mitigation
10. The HB
Regional Council recently declared a climate emergency, and intends that this
declaration should not be an empty statement, but will spearhead strong action
against climate change in Hawke’s Bay.
11. At about
the same time, the HBRC Transport team held a workshop with a group of
councillors to outline the current state of our public transport system,
discuss issues and understand where the council would like to take PT in the
future. This workshop was followed by hearings of submissions and
deliberations on the Regional Public Transport Plan.
12. Councillors
were enthusiastic about the role that public transport could play in reducing
carbon emissions, if it were much better used in Hawke’s Bay. They
tasked the team with presenting some ideas for substantially increasing its
uptake.
13. Some
broad proposals are presented here for discussion and feedback by this
committee.
Carbon Mitigation on
Current Bus Services
14. The
carbon mitigation effect of the existing bus service has been calculated, using
the following assumptions:
14.1. That
all bus passenger trips replace a single-occupancy petrol car journey
14.2. An
average CO2 emissions per km figure has been used – some cars will emit
more or less than this. In 2018, the average CO2 emission of a petrol car
in the NZ fleet was 181.5g per kilometre, a considerable reduction since 2006
when the average was well over 200g per km (This is due to improvements in the
fleet).
15. In
2017-18, 7,047,232 passenger-kilometres were travelled on the HB network.
Using the above assumptions, this equates to a reduction of 1,279 tonnes of CO2
annually. However, the buses themselves emit approximately 1,100 tonnes of CO2
in a year, equating to a net saving of 179 tonnes of CO2 per year.
16. Increasing
passenger numbers and improving the occupancy of our buses would improve this
figure, as would further improvements to the bus fleet, or the replacement of
some low patronage routes with on-demand services.
Possible issues
preventing greater use of the bus service
17. As may be
seen from the annual public transport results presented at the start of this
report, patronage on HB bus services has been declining for five years.
18. There is
a range of factors which may be currently preventing greater public transport
use in HB
18.1. Growth
in car ownership per capita and low unemployment in Hawke’s Bay
18.2. Cost
of fares compared with the cost of driving
18.3. Ease,
availability and low cost of parking
18.4. The
spatial layout of the Heretaunga Plains with dispersed population centres
18.5. Limited
service hours at present
18.6. Geographical
coverage of the bus service
18.7. Persistent
late running issues on Route 12 between cities, mainly due to traffic
congestion.
19. In
addition to the contribution that increased patronage could make to transport
emissions reduction, there are also some emerging issues on the road network
that public transport could help to mitigate. In particular, increased
use of buses could help to reduce growth in traffic numbers on the HB
Expressway, particularly at peak times, thereby possibly postponing the need
for four-laning on some sections. There has been substantial growth in
traffic on the Expressway, with some sections showing an increase in average
daily traffic of 25% – 35% since 2010.
Ideas to Improve Bus
Patronage
20. We have
taken the discussion from the council workshop, as well as ideas and issues
raised through the Regional Public Transport Plan consultation process, and
developed the following broad concept ideas.
These are:
Proposal 1: Increase service
levels across the board
21. Extend hours of operation
and frequencies, providing all bus routes with weekend services and improving
geographical coverage where needed. Some examples:
21.1. Route 12 (Napier –
Hastings via Taradale/EIT) might operate every 15 minutes in both directions,
instead of the current 20 minutes
21.2. A greater frequency and
capacity on direct Napier – Hastings services (Routes 10 (via Expressway
and HB Hospital) and 11 ( via Clive)
21.3. Operating hours extended
from 6.00pm to 7.30pm in the evening
21.4. All services to have a
Sunday bus service – currently only Route 12, Route 20 (Flaxmere) and
Route 21 (Havelock North) have Sunday services
21.5. Greater frequency of
Saturday services, introduce Saturday services to Routes 16A, 16B, 17(Hastings)
22. In order to improve
geographical coverage of the bus service, it may be necessary to split or
reorganise some bus routes.
Rationale:
23. Providing more frequent
services at peak times on commuter services gives potential passengers more
choice and encourages growth in patronage.
24. Elasticity of demand is a
concept used to model the likely effects of a range of variables on public
transport demand. Standard short-run elasticity values for changes in
frequency on NZ bus services state that for every 10% increase in frequency, a
3.5% increase in patronage may result. (https://www.nzta.govt.nz/assets/resources/research/reports/248/248-Review-of-passenger-transport-demand-elasticities.pdf,
Booz Allen Hamilton, 2004).
25. Growth areas in HB that
are not currently well serviced (eg. Parklands, Taradale East) would gain
a bus service, thereby improving accessibility, one of Government’s key
aims.
26. Longer daily operating
hours would provide passengers with more service choice, and may enable some
commuters with non-standard work hours to use the bus.
Potential Issues:
27. The extension of operating
hours, while providing greater choice and flexibility of service, would be out
of peak operating hours and therefore unlikely to reach a level of patronage
which could make a serious inroad into emissions reduction, although it would
certainly improve accessibility.
28. There is relatively modest
use of current weekend services on suburban routes – extending weekend
services to all suburban services may increase patronage somewhat and would
certainly benefit accessibility, but not to the extent that it would make a
significant difference to emissions mitigation. In 2016, we introduced
Sunday services on both the Flaxmere and Havelock North routes and increased
one or two other services, but patronage has continued to decline on these
routes overall.
29. Some likely new service
areas may have lower PT demand than suburbs already serviced, due to their
demographic and socio-economic character. Existing suburban services are
already seeing lower patronage than ever before, so traditional scheduled bus
services may not be the best way to provide service to new areas.
30. Extending routes or adding
new ones is the most complex of modifications to make, due to the need to get
bus stops allocated and approved by the road controlling authorities and to
install other infrastructure such as shelters and timetable holders. If
trials are unsuccessful, this infrastructure then needs to be removed at a later
date.
Rough cost and carbon benefit:
31. The rough cost of this
proposal is not possible to estimate without a more detailed plan, but it is
likely to be significantly more expensive than some of the other options.
32. Similarly, more detailed
investigation would be required to determine the likely carbon benefit; this
would very much depend on whether significantly more resource was put into
improving peak frequencies than into off-peak or extending coverage and weekend
services etc.
Proposal 2: Maintain current
service levels, introduce some or all electric buses to the fleet
Rationale:
33. If all buses were
converted to electric, this would remove the 1,100 tonnes of carbon emissions
currently produced by the diesel bus fleet and thereby increase the mitigation
of emissions, taking the carbon savings to around 1,279 tonnes of CO2 annually (2017-18 figures)
34. Would enhance HBRC’s
image as an environmental protector.
35. May encourage patronage by
making PT seem more environmentally friendly and upmarket.
Potential Issues:
36. The increase in patronage
on the buses is unlikely to be very significant, in the absence of other
improvements.
37. The cost of an electric
bus is around $800,000, approximately twice that of a new diesel, although
operating costs are around 40% lower. However, the capital price
differential between diesel and electric is expected to have disappeared by
2030.
38. The logistics of an
electric fleet would need to be carefully explored given the length of bus
routes between Napier and Hastings, current tight schedules, the likely need
for recharging during the day and the draw on power supplies if all vehicles in
the fleet needed to be recharged at night at the same time. There are 25
vehicles in the fleet at present.
39. This proposal would not
improve accessibility for HB residents, nor is it likely to significantly
reduce single-occupancy vehicles at peak times on congested routes.
Rough cost and carbon benefit:
40. The rough order cost of
this proposal is difficult to estimate at this point without
detailed discussion with the operator, understanding of the residual value of
the current fleet etc.
41. The carbon benefit of this
proposal is in the region of 1,100 tonnes annually, if all buses were converted
to electric and assuming no significant increase in patronage.
Proposal 3: Free 2-zone peak
services
42. All 2-zone trips departing
between 6am – 9am and 3pm – 6pm free of charge to all passengers,
smartcard only. Some additional Route 10, 11 and 12 peak services added to
manage expected demand.
43. EIT and Clive form the
zone boundaries, so any trip which crosses these is a 2-zone trip i.e. Napier,
Bay View, Taradale ( before EIT) to Hastings, Havelock North or Flaxmere is a
2-zone trip. Hastings, Havelock North, Flaxmere to Taradale (after EIT),
Tamatea, Bay View or Napier is also a 2-zone trip.
Rationale:
44. The HB Expressway is
showing ongoing growth in daily traffic, with most vehicles at peak time
occupied by one person. There are calls for four-laning of the Expressway,
which would be hugely expensive. Increasing road capacity generally
induces demand, which is not supported by current government policy.
Substantially improving commuter use of the buses between Napier and Hastings
would remove peak vehicles from the Expressway, possibly postponing the need
for four-laning.
45. 2-zone trips on the
Napier–Hastings bus service are all more than 10kms long. Growing
2-zone patronage would provide the biggest “bang for buck” in terms
of emissions reduction per trip.
46. “Free”
services are a powerful incentive and many people will accept lesser
convenience in order to save money, even though they have a vehicle and could
drive. This effect has been demonstrated by the introduction of Supergold
free off-peak travel, the Massy free student service and a number of other
examples around the country.
47. Making this free fare
available by smartcard only would incentivise greater uptake of the cards
(currently sitting at about 75% of trips). This would mean less cash on
buses and faster boarding times for peak services. While a fare would not
be deducted, the card would still be required as a means of counting passengers
(via its tag-on, tag-off system) and recording their boarding and alighting
points, to ensure that the 2-zone trip has been taken. The new ticketing
system will have the ability to correctly deduct a zero fare from passengers
boarding at the right time and alighting after a 2-zone trip.
Potential Issues:
48. Inequity for those
passengers only travelling 1 zone, or during off-peak (although SuperGold
passengers already travel free during this time). Feedback during the
Regional Public Transport Plan consultation showed that the cost of 1-zone
fares for adults is a significant disincentive to using the bus, particularly
with the amount of free parking that is available in both Hastings and
Napier. This proposal would therefore not encourage greater use by
commuters within Napier–Taradale or within Hastings–Havelock
North–Flaxmere.
49. The proposal would benefit
commuters travelling for work or study at peak times, and 2-zone trips
are currently only 20% of total patronage. While this may achieve a
reasonable benefit in terms of carbon mitigation, it will not benefit
many of those existing or potential passengers who may be most in need of
cheaper fares.
Rough cost and carbon benefit:
50. Making all current peak
2-zone trips free would result in a loss of approximately $182,000 in
revenue each year. There would also be a cost to add further peak buses to the
fleet to cater for an expected increase in demand. This requires more detailed
investigation to quantify, but is likely to add at least $100,000 to the annual
cost.
51. Using the elasticity
rules, an 80% increase in 2-zone peak patronage is likely over time. (This
is consistent with fares-free schemes in other parts of the country where a
near doubling of patronage has resulted). If this were the case, a
further saving of 293 tonnes of carbon per year would result (using the
calculation method outlined in paragraphs 14-16 above).
Proposal 4: Cheaper fares for all
passengers, all the time
52. All 2-zone trips to cost
$2, irrespective of passenger type (child, student, adult etc.), smartcard
only.
53. All 1-zone trips to cost
$1, irrespective of passenger type, smartcard only.
54. Additional Route 10, 11,
12 and 20 peak services to manage expected demand. It is expected that
most other services would be able to absorb up to a doubling of patronage.
Rationale:
55. This proposal would
provide a fare reduction for all passengers, with adult passengers benefitting
the most and school children the least.
Smartcard Fares
|
|
Adult
|
Tertiary Student/Community Services Card
|
Child/High School Student/Senior
|
|
|
Current
|
Proposed
|
Decrease
|
Current
|
Proposed
|
Decrease
|
Current
|
Proposed
|
Decrease
|
|
1 zone
|
$2.88
|
$1.00
|
65%
|
$1.90
|
$1.00
|
47%
|
$1.43
|
$1.00
|
30%
|
|
2 zone
|
$3.65
|
$2.00
|
45%
|
$2.86
|
$2.00
|
30%
|
$2.14
|
$2.00
|
7%
|
56. The cheaper fares would encourage new passengers across all
services, including off-peak when occupancy is generally quite low.
57. Elasticity
of demand is a concept used to model the likely effects of a range of variables
on public transport demand. Standard short-run elasticity values for
changes in fares on NZ bus services state that for every 10% decrease in fare
levels, a 4% increase in patronage may result in the short-term, with this
percentage likely to double over time. (https://www.nzta.govt.nz/assets/resources/research/reports/248/248-Review-of-passenger-transport-demand-elasticities.pdf,
Booz Allen Hamilton, 2004).
58. As may be
seen in the table above, the proposed fare reductions are quite significant and
while other factors will also play a part, we could reasonably expect patronage
growth of at least 30% over time. For example, commuters between Napier
and Hastings would see that $20 to commute all week on the bus would be less
than half the cost of driving a petrol vehicle, especially when parking costs
are taken into consideration. Very cheap fares are a substantial
motivator, as evidenced by the uptake of subsidised staff bus schemes at HBDHB
and HBRC.
59. All
passenger groups would benefit, and this would contribute to government aims of
improving accessibility, as well as reducing carbon emissions.
60. Making
the cheaper fares available by smartcard only would incentivise greater uptake
of the cards (currently sitting at about 75% of trips). This would mean
less cash on buses and faster boarding times.
Issues:
61. As this
option removes concession fares for certain passenger groups when using
smartcards, we would need to decide whether to retain them for cash fares, or
remove them and set cash fares at consistent but higher rates for all
passengers.
Rough cost and carbon benefit:
62. As this proposal is not
for free fares, but significantly cheaper ones, extra patronage (assuming 30%
over time) would largely offset lower fares.
63. There would be a cost to
add further peak buses to the fleet to cater for an expected increase in
demand. This requires more detailed investigation to quantify, but is likely to
cost upwards of $150,000 annually.
64. Assuming a 30% increase in
patronage over time (in the same ratio of 1-zone/2-zone patronage as we
currently carry) a further annual saving of 384 tonnes of carbon annually would
be made.
Proposal 5: Remove
zonal fares.
65. Under
this proposal, the differentiation between 1 and 2 zone fares would be removed
and all fares would be set at the 1-zone rate. Some increase in 2-zone
services would be necessary to cater for an increase in demand.
Rationale:
66. The
current cost for a 2-zone trip may be discouraging bus passengers from taking
the longer trips between Napier and Hastings. Removing this could
encourage greater bus commuting.
Potential Issues:
67. The
proposal would benefit commuters travelling between cities for work or
study. While this may achieve benefits in terms of carbon mitigation, it
will not benefit many of those existing or potential passengers who may be most
in need of cheaper fares.
68. If fares
were set at the current 1-zone levels, there would not be as great a reduction
of fares for 2-zone passengers as for Proposal 4 (27% on average). We
could therefore reasonably expect the increase in patronage to be less.
69. 2-zone
passengers are currently only around 20% of total patronage and this
option does not propose free trips, so the carbon mitigation effects would be
less significant than Proposals 3,4, and 5 .
Rough cost and carbon benefit:
70. Lost
revenue from reducing 2-zone fares would be in the region of $65,000; however,
this would likely be at least partially recouped from expected higher 2-zone
patronage.
71. There would also be a cost
to add further peak buses to the fleet to cater for an expected increase in
demand, although less than for either Proposals 3 or 4. This requires
more detailed investigation to quantify, but is likely to cost at least $80,000
annually.
72. An
average 27% fare reduction for 2-zone passengers only, could result in an
increase in carbon mitigation through increased patronage, of around 108.6
tonnes per year.
Discussion
73. All the
proposed options are likely to be costly and HBRC needs to explore the
likelihood of NZTA funding for any of these proposals. We are seeking the
committee’s feedback on the concepts, rationale and potential issues of
the proposals, prior to consideration by HBRC and then possible development of
detailed business cases.
74. Any
significant changes to the bus service would need to be introduced on a trial
basis, probably for at least two years, to determine the effects on patronage.
75. There are
of course a number of possible permutations and combinations of these proposals
that could provide benefits for climate change and improve accessibility and
transport choice for Hawke’s Bay residents. For example, it may be
beneficial to extend service operating hours as well as increase frequencies on
some services and introduce lower flat fares.
76. There is
a range of other modifications that HBRC would like to make to the bus service,
no matter whether any of these proposals is advanced. These include modifying
Route 12 to run via the Expressway and Evenden Road, providing an airport
service, introducing on-demand services in areas of current low patronage and
new residential areas. These proposals are under development and will be
presented to the council in due course.
Next Steps
77. After
further development, the Hawke’s Bay Regional Council will determine
which of the proposals, if any, should be developed into a business case.
Decision Making
Process
78. Staff have assessed the
requirements of the Local Government Act 2002 in relation to this item and have
concluded that, as this report is for information only, the decision making
provisions do not apply.
|
Recommendation
That the Regional Transport Committee
receives the “Climate Change Mitigation through Public Transport”
report.
|
Authored by:
|
Anne
Redgrave
Transport Manager
|
|
Approved by:
|
Tom Skerman
Group Manager Strategic Planning
|
|
Attachment/s
There are no
attachments for this report.
HAWKE’S BAY REGIONAL
COUNCIL
Regional
Transport Committee
Friday 06 September 2019
Subject: September 2019
HBRC Transport Manager's Report
Reason
for Report
1. This regular
report provides the Committee with a snapshot of relevant transport matters,
provides updates from the Transport Advisory Group (TAG) on issues raised at
their regular meetings and outlines what is coming up within the transport
sector.
Transport Advisory Group meetings
2. The TAG group
has met to
2.1. commence the development of
documentation for the HB Transport Study
2.2. discuss emerging issues such as
regional coordination of speed limit setting processes, the development of
Regional Land Transport Plans.
2.3. provide content for a regional
submission on Road to Zero
Regional Land Transport Plans / Government
Policy Statement
3. Although it
seems a short while since the Regional Transport Committee adopted the 2018
review of the Regional Land Transport Plan, most councils are now gearing up
for the preparation of the next RLTP ready for June 2021.
4. The HB
Transport Study will provide the background for us to conduct a full review of
the strategic direction and future transport programmes for the region.
5. The RTC must
also ensure that the RLTP is consistent with the Government Policy Statement on
Land Transport. The Ministry of Transport is therefore working with the
government to get this guiding document prepared. The draft for
consultation should be available December–January and the Ministry of
Transport is keen to present this at February RTC meetings.
6. The Transport
Sector Interest Group is working on developing a template for regional land
transport plans. This is intended to provide a common structure for all
councils to use, which will
6.1. help RTCs ensure that they are
meeting the statutory requirements for RLTPS; and
6.2. assist NZTA in the evaluation
of regions’ strategic aims and objectives
6.3. ensure a common approach to the
prioritisation of programmes.
HB Transport Study
7. The purpose of
the proposed HB Transport Study is to:
7.1. assess the current state of the
Hawke’s Bay transport network in light of recent major roading
improvements which were identified in the Heretaunga Plains Transport Study
2012 and the Wider Region Transport Study
7.2. understand the effects of
recent and future demographic, economic, technological and land use changes on
current and future transport demand, capacity and safety issues.
7.3. develop a programme business
case for programmed and prioritised investment at activity level over the
short-, medium- and long-term.
8. The TAG group
and associated external advisers have met several times to progress the
study. A review item has been submitted to NZTA to release the funding;
this is expected shortly.
9. A procurement
strategy has been developed and once signed off, we will proceed to procure
three aspects of the study separately. These are:
9.1. an update of the strategic Cube
model for the Heretaunga Plains
9.2. developing a Network Operating
Plan
9.3. developing a programme business
case for the whole of HB.
Road to Zero draft road safety strategy
and tackling unsafe speeds
10. Consultation on the draft
road safety strategy has now closed. The Ministry of Transport reports
that there has been a significant response to the draft, with many
submissions. The Hawke’s Bay RTC’s submission is Attachment
1.
11. The Ministry is also
working on a project titled Tackling Unsafe Speeds, which will address one of
the main priority actions identified in Road to Zero. This will
concentrate on three main aspects:
11.1. A new approach to safety
cameras
11.2. Streamlining the speed
limit setting process
11.3. Focusing on areas where
there is a high number of active transport users, such as around schools.
12. Of
particular interest is the suggested approach to streamline the speed limit
setting process, with regional collaboration to undertake speed limit reviews
and joint regional consultation. This is consistent with the approach
that the RTC supported at its June meeting.
13. The TAG
has already discussed how to progress speed limit reviews at a regional
level. Most councils have put speed limit reviews on hold due to the
pending council elections, so this task will recommence in early 2020.
There may also be further Ministry of Transport guidance on the proposed
regional collaborative approach by then.
Driver Licensing Programmes
14. The governance group for
the HBRC driver licensing fund met recently to make a decision on whether to
continue with its fund. The decision was to continue, subject to
obtaining sufficient funding from NZTA and local stakeholders, which is being
sought at present. All current providers have been notified; however, in
accordance with NZTA rules, a procurement process will need to be undertaken
for the further two-year contract.
Regional
Public Transport Plan review
15. The Regional Public Transport
Plan is now operative and HBRC has commenced developing the specific actions
set out in the plan. The first of these is to investigate transport needs
in CHB and Wairoa, and to resolve late running issues on services between
Napier and Hastings.
Other Significant issues or Works
NZTA
Highway Network and Operations
16. An update on work by NZTA
Highway Network and Operations Group forms part of the Regional
Director’s report.
Wairoa District Council
17. Wairoa District Council was successful in applying to the
Provincial Growth Fund for its programme of bridge strengthening on local roads
to ensure HPMV capability. WDC is now progressing this programme of
works.
Hawke’s Bay Regional Council
18. Reports on the public
transport operations and road safety education outputs managed by Hawke’s
Bay Regional Council are the subjects of separate items in this agenda.
Decision Making Process
19. Staff have assessed the
requirements of the Local Government Act 2002 in relation to this item and have
concluded that, as this report is for information only, the decision making
provisions do not apply.
|
Recommendation
That the Regional Transport Committee receives and notes the “September
2019 HBRC Transport Manager's report”.
|
Authored by:
|
Anne
Redgrave
Transport Manager
|
|
Approved by:
|
Tom Skerman
Group Manager Strategic Planning
|
|
Attachment/s
|
⇩1
|
Submission
Road to Zero Strategy
|
|
|
