Agenda of Regional Council Workshop - Tuesday, 3 December 2024

Hawke’s Bay Regional Council

Council - Workshop

3 December 2024

Subject: Response to recommendations from Cyclone Gabrielle reviews

Reason for report

1. This report is to update Council on progress being made with regards to the recommendations from the independent reviews arising from Cyclone Gabrielle.

2. It follows on from the paper presented to Council on 28 August which outlined an initial high-level analysis of the recommendations from the independent reviews.

3. The recommendations from the independent review of the June 2024 event in Wairoa have been added to the original 49 recommendations from the August update and will be reported on jointly going forward.

4. This report aims to provide an overview for Councillors on the process followed by staff to date in assessing the recommendations, in order to prepare them for the decision paper due to Council on 18 December.

Discussion

5. The independent reviews now include:

5.1. HB Independent Flood Review (HBIFR)

5.2. Government Inquiry into the Response to the North Island Severe Weather Events

5.3. HBCDEM Response to Cyclone Gabrielle, and

5.4. Review of the Management of the Wairoa River Bar by HBRC

6. Each recommendation has had a one-page assessment completed that identifies who is the lead agency and team, what the expected deliverables are, whether this work is already underway and funded, or if not, then what are the expected costs and timeframes for delivery. See the one-page overviews that have been included as an attachment.

7. The one-page overviews were developed through a cross-council collaborative process to fully understand what was being asked and what actions are required by HBRC to give effect to the recommendations.

8. Following this process the overall status of the recommendations were further refined, as per the updated table below (Table 1). This shows that 9% of these are considered completed, a further 58% are underway and 21% partially underway but require further scoping and funding. This leaves 6% of the recommendations yet to be scoped by HBRC. There are a further two recommendations (4%) that are Government-led.

Table 1: Overall status of recommendations

Update on Priority Recommendations

9. The following eight recommendations that relate to monitoring, communication and public education were identified as a priority to Council on 28 August 2024. The below is an update on how these recommendations are progressing. Full comments can be found in the 1-page overviews.

Recommendation	Progress update
FRHBRC-15: HBRC should actively communicate and educate communities about the level of flood risk they are exposed to and assist them in improving their resilience to flooding, including, but not confined to, improving and updating the HBRC online Hazard Portal.	A draft Extreme Weather Hub has been created. This will help hold all flood risk information in one easily accessible location and be a source of public education. A supporting communication and engagement plan will support the role out of this, which we aim to go-live with by end of January 2025. The Hazard Portal update is a separate project that is being scoped.
FRHBRC-16 HBRC should ensure that flood risk is accurately quantified and that flood frequency assessments include significant past flood events.	NIWA flood frequency data is currently being used in most areas, apart from where NIWA highlighted uncertainty. In these instances, further analysis is being undertaken. All analysis has always included significant past events, and the intention is to continue this practice in the future. Climate change scenarios have been applied to all Category 2 mitigations, as per government instruction. This needs to be rolled out across all schemes moving forward.
FRHBRC-17 HBRC should improve its systems and technology for monitoring and modelling rainfall in real-time in order to provide more accurate and timely forecasts of river flows and associated flood inundation across the region. For example, communication stations should have adequate back-up power supplies to continue operating when needed and it should be clear when data is not being gathered or transmitted. Inundation maps for a range of events should also be readily available.	Underway as part of the NIWE-Programme. This project aims to address these issues to upgrade and protect the telemetry network from disruption in future events. It will include installing upgraded monitoring hardware and new software at suitable locations across Hawke’s Bay. This will provide comprehensive flood monitoring and early river and rainfall information (with additional resilience) to engineers, Civil Defence Emergency Management (HBCDEM) and the public.
FRHBRC-18: HBRC should identify specific trigger levels for alerts and recommended evacuations for known flood risk areas, document these in their Flood Manual and communicate them with those who are affected.	This is a large project that requires further scoping with key partners and the community. HBRC have been discussing the requirements to achieve this recommendation internally and with HBCDEM, but this will require a wider discussion with key partners and stakeholders. Interim trigger levels can be delivered in the shorter term but are currently not resourced.
FRHBRC-19: HBRC should ensure that robust systems are in place to alert the community when trigger levels are being approached or exceeded and ensure Civil Defence has all the information it needs to undertake its functions. This could include providing greater public access to HBRC river flood forecast information.	HBRC already carry out the intelligence function to provide information to HBCDEM on existing river-level trigger levels. Flood forecasting dashboards will be made available on the Extreme Weather Hub for public to access. The development of Flood Plain Management Plans once trigger levels have been determined will also support these outcomes and will also be linked on the Extreme Weather Hub.
FRHBRC-20: HBRC should take a precautionary approach when providing forecast flood inundation information to Civil Defence. The use of “worst case scenario” terminology should be avoided as that conveys a potentially inaccurate and overly optimistic assessment of what may actually occur. All communications regarding potential flood inundation should be as clear and decisive as possible.	HBCDEM are working on Notification Protocols. This is supported by the National Flood Warning steering group led by NEMA. HBRC staff are also included in the steering group and are working closely with HBCDEM to support this project. The development of Flood Plain Management Plans once trigger levels have been determined will also support these outcomes, and terminology will be predetermined.
FRHBRC-06 When designing flood management works or assessing the adequacy of existing works, HBRC should include historic floods that have not been measured as part of the systematic record in the analysis. For example, the inclusion of the 1938 flood flow estimate for the Esk Valley significantly affects the assigned frequency of the 2023 event. Similarly, for Pōrangahau the inclusion of the 1941 and 1953 flood events significantly changes the assessment of the 2023 flood frequency and the basis for what is a reasonable design standard for the future.	Completed, as per previous report (28 August 2024)
FRHBRC-23 HBRC should update and include the 2023 flood event as well as other notable historic floods in the assessment of flood frequency for use in identifying flood hazard areas. The underestimation of flood risk in the Esk valley and Pōrangahau are examples of significant historic floods not being accounted for.	Completed, as per previous report (28 August 2024)

Recommendation

Progress update

FRHBRC-15: HBRC should actively communicate and educate communities about the level of flood risk they are exposed to and assist them in improving their resilience to flooding, including, but not confined to, improving and updating the HBRC online Hazard Portal.

A draft Extreme Weather Hub has been created. This will help hold all flood risk information in one easily accessible location and be a source of public education. A supporting communication and engagement plan will support the role out of this, which we aim to go-live with by end of January 2025.

The Hazard Portal update is a separate project that is being scoped.

FRHBRC-16

HBRC should ensure that flood risk is accurately quantified and that flood frequency assessments include significant past flood events.

NIWA flood frequency data is currently being used in most areas, apart from where NIWA highlighted uncertainty. In these instances, further analysis is being undertaken. All analysis has always included significant past events, and the intention is to continue this practice in the future.

Climate change scenarios have been applied to all Category 2 mitigations, as per government instruction. This needs to be rolled out across all schemes moving forward.

FRHBRC-17

HBRC should improve its systems and technology for monitoring and modelling rainfall in real-time in order to provide more accurate and timely forecasts of river flows and associated flood inundation across the region. For example, communication stations should have adequate back-up power supplies to continue operating when needed and it should be clear when data is not being gathered or transmitted. Inundation maps for a range of events should also be readily available.

Underway as part of the NIWE-Programme.

This project aims to address these issues to upgrade and protect the telemetry network from disruption in future events. It will include installing upgraded monitoring hardware and new software at suitable locations across Hawke’s Bay. This will provide comprehensive flood monitoring and early river and rainfall information (with additional resilience) to engineers, Civil Defence Emergency Management (HBCDEM) and the public.

FRHBRC-18: HBRC should identify specific trigger levels for alerts and recommended evacuations for known flood risk areas, document these in their Flood Manual and communicate them with those who are affected.

This is a large project that requires further scoping with key partners and the community. HBRC have been discussing the requirements to achieve this recommendation internally and with HBCDEM, but this will require a wider discussion with key partners and stakeholders.

Interim trigger levels can be delivered in the shorter term but are currently not resourced.

FRHBRC-19: HBRC should ensure that robust systems are in place to alert the community when trigger levels are being approached or exceeded and ensure Civil Defence has all the information it needs to undertake its functions. This could include providing greater public access to HBRC river flood forecast information.

HBRC already carry out the intelligence function to provide information to HBCDEM on existing river-level trigger levels.

Flood forecasting dashboards will be made available on the Extreme Weather Hub for public to access.

The development of Flood Plain Management Plans once trigger levels have been determined will also support these outcomes and will also be linked on the Extreme Weather Hub.

FRHBRC-20: HBRC should take a precautionary approach when providing forecast flood inundation information to Civil Defence. The use of “worst case scenario” terminology should be avoided as that conveys a potentially inaccurate and overly optimistic assessment of what may actually occur. All communications regarding potential flood inundation should be as clear and decisive as possible.

HBCDEM are working on Notification Protocols. This is supported by the National Flood Warning steering group led by NEMA. HBRC staff are also included in the steering group and are working closely with HBCDEM to support this project.

The development of Flood Plain Management Plans once trigger levels have been determined will also support these outcomes, and terminology will be predetermined.

FRHBRC-06

When designing flood management works or assessing the adequacy of existing works, HBRC should include historic floods that have not been measured as part of the systematic record in the analysis. For example, the inclusion of the 1938 flood flow estimate for the Esk Valley significantly affects the assigned frequency of the 2023 event. Similarly, for Pōrangahau the inclusion of the 1941 and 1953 flood events significantly changes the assessment of the 2023 flood frequency and the basis for what is a reasonable design standard for the future.

Completed, as per previous report (28 August 2024)

FRHBRC-23

HBRC should update and include the 2023 flood event as well as other notable historic floods in the assessment of flood frequency for use in identifying flood hazard areas. The underestimation of flood risk in the Esk valley and Pōrangahau are examples of significant historic floods not being accounted for.

Completed, as per previous report (28 August 2024)

Update on completed recommendations

10. After further analysis, the following five recommendations were confirmed to be completed:

FRHBRC-06: When designing flood management works or assessing the adequacy of existing works, HBRC should include historic floods that have not been measured as part of the systematic record in the analysis. For example, the inclusion of the 1938 flood flow estimate for the Esk Valley significantly affects the assigned frequency of the 2023 event. Similarly, for Pōrangahau the inclusion of the 1941 and 1953 flood events significantly changes the assessment of the 2023 flood frequency and the basis for what is a reasonable design standard for the future.

FRHBRC-21: The Panel endorses the recommendations of the Hawke's Bay Regional Cyclone Recovery Committee Telemetry Review (August 2023), the Report of the Independent External Review for Hawke's Bay Civil defence and Emergency management Group (March 2024) and the Report of the Government Enquiry into the Response to the North Island Severe Weather Events (March 2024).

FRHBRC-23: HBRC should update and include the 2023 flood event as well as other notable historic floods in the assessment of flood frequency for use in identifying flood hazard areas. The underestimation of flood risk in the Esk valley and Pōrangahau are examples of significant historic floods not being accounted for.

FRHBRC-30: HBRC should re-survey all river and stream channels within current Scheme boundaries to assess whether they meet the currently agreed levels of service in the respective Asset Management Plans. From this work, a prioritised work programme should be developed to demonstrate how any systems that are not at their agreed service levels will be returned to those.

FRHBRC-35: Using the survey data noted above, HBRC should complete a geomorphic assessment of the bed level trajectory for the lower Wairoa River for the purpose of assisting with the assessment of flood management infrastructure options for this area.

11. The numbers highlighted in red in overall status table (Table 1) is where funding is needed to achieve the outcomes of the following recommendations in Table 2:

Table 2: Recommendations that are not funded or fully funded

Underway
Partially funded	FRHBRC-34: HBRC should evaluate the need to add maintenance of the Wairoa River channel to the scope of the existing Asset Management Plan for this area. This evaluation should include consideration of riparian vegetation management as well as river bed level monitoring in line with typical survey frequency (5-yearly) of the region’s other main rivers.
	FRHBRC-40: Where marae and papakainga are unprotected in terms of flood protection works (two examples being marae at Porangahau and Wairoa), HBRC needs to partner with mana whenua groups at those places in looking at options to render those communities safe and sustainable into the future. Options may include raising the floor levels of marae or moving communities to higher ground. HBRC needs to engage urgently with these communities and with the Crown provide funding and assistance for planning, consultation, purchasing and other measures necessary to manage flood risk effectively in these marae and papakainga.
	FRHBRC-43: HBRC should make more and better use of local networks and knowledge that exist within communities, as it leads the process of developing comprehensive flood risk management solutions and implements the physical works needed to improve flood resilience in Hawke’s Bay.
	FRHBRC-44: HBRC should develop a collaborative process for developing flood scheme designs involving regional and district councils, mana whenua and the wider community.
Not funded	FRHBRC-47: HBRC should review the funding of current and future river management Schemes so that the local and regional share provide affordable and equitable outcomes.
Partially underway
Partially funded	FRHBRC-05: HBRC should determine the design standard of improved flood management systems based on robust economic analysis to determine the minimum net cost accounting for the investment required for the flood mitigation works and the value of flood damages avoided due to those works. The widely applied 100-year, including climate change, should be considered the minimum standard and not the default standard. This will necessitate consideration of the flood management standards and long-term budgets, an example being the 500-year flood standard for the entire Heretaunga Plains Scheme within the current Long Term Plan.
	FRHBRC-15: HBRC should actively communicate and educate communities about the level of flood risk they are exposed to and assist them in improving their resilience to flooding, including, but not confined to, improving and updating the HBRC online Hazard Portal.
	FRHBRC-19: HBRC should ensure that robust systems are in place to alert the community when trigger levels are being approached or exceeded and ensure Civil Defence has all the information it needs to undertake its functions. This could include providing greater public access to HBRC river flood forecast information.
	FRHBRC-28: HBRC should ensure it has sufficient financial and people resources available to allow it to provide effective advocacy and technical input to planning processes and resource consent applications, so as to ensure that development does not occur in areas subject to unacceptable flood hazard risk.
	FRHBRC-42: HBRC should communicate and collaborate effectively with communities, mana whenua and stakeholders in the development and implementation of flood risk management solutions for areas subject to flood risk.
1. Not funded	FRHBRC-08: When assessing and designing flood management systems near bridges, HBRC should incorporate scenarios that consider partial blockage situations and account for this in the design. The breaching of stopbanks immediately upstream of bridges was a notable feature of this event, with the breach at Awatoto being a clear example.
	FRHBRC-32: HBRC should be more proactive in managing gravel build up where it is above design grade lines, and either extract it to maintain the agreed level of service or develop and implement alternative options. These should include but not be limited to being more directive regarding gravel extraction and removing contractor's ability to pick and choose locations based on convenience. Noting that the 2023 flood event will have likely changed the river bed levels considerably, the upper Tukituki system and the Tūtaekurī and lower Esk River were noted as locations where specific assessments and actions were needed.
Not yet scoped
Partially funded	FRHBRC-07 : When assessing and designing flood management systems near river mouths, HBRC should incorporate scenarios that consider partial blockage situations, as well as a range of sea level and storm surge conditions. By way of example, at the Esk River mouth, the interaction with the adverse coastal conditions in addition to significant debris loading is likely to have increased flood levels in the lower reach of the river.
	FRHBRC-18 : HBRC should identify specific trigger levels for alerts and recommended evacuations for known flood risk areas, document these in their Flood Manual and communicate them with those who are affected.
Requires Pre-feasibility Study
Not funded	FRHBRC-33: HBRC should investigate options for more permanent river mouth openings using techniques such as heavy guide banks/moles at locations where it is critical for flood conveyance and increased flood levels cannot be accommodated by upstream flood management works. During Cyclone Gabrielle the Esk River mouth was at least partially impeded and may have contributed to the extent of upstream flooding.

12. Due to the interconnectedness and linkages between recommendations further analysis was carried out on commentary of the one-page overviews for each recommendation to identify groupings of key outcomes/ outputs (deliverables).

13. These related pieces of work were then bundled into ‘projects’ where deliverables are similar or interdependent. Most of these have been preliminarily scoped for resource requirements (funding and staff) and expected timeframes, but others will require further scoping.

14. There are 26 projects (bundles), as shown in Attachment 1. This alternative view of the recommendations allows a work programme and timeline to be developed, including their critical path.

15. To avoid duplication, projects that are already underway that do not require further funding will not be included in the ongoing tracking of this programme. These projects are already being reported on to Council through existing channels. We therefore do not seek further decisions from Council on these projects. They include:

15.1. NIWE – Telemetry Network Upgrade

15.2. River, lagoon, and pumpstation monitoring

15.3. Extreme Weather Hub

15.4. NIWE – Category 2 Flood Protection Mitigation projects

15.5. NIWE – Scheme reviews

15.6. Updated flood modeling and hazard assessment

15.7. Wairoa River Bar Management

15.8. Regional Policy Statement review

15.9. Kotahi Plan.

Next steps

16. The programme team leading the flood reviews recommendations implementation programme are currently working on developing project overviews that include preliminary scoping of projects for Council’s consideration on 18 December 2024.

17. Project overviews for each bundle will include preliminary costs and staff resourcing requirements, and timeframes. Some projects will take longer to scope thoroughly and will require dedicated resources due to the scale of the project and the requirement to include external partners and stakeholders.

Authored by:

Julie-Anne McLean

Programme Manager Regulatory Implementation

Louise McPhail

Manager Recovery

Approved by:

Chris Dolley

Group Manager Asset Management

Attachment/s

1	HBIFR draft timeline - project bundles		Under Separate Cover *online only*
2	HBIFR and Wairoa Flood Reviews 1-Page overviews of recommendation responses		Under Separate Cover *online only*